The role of software is increasingly critical in our everyday lives and the accompanying risks of business or safety critical systems failure can be profound. This module will provide students with a framework for articulating and managing the risks inherent in the systems they will develop as practitioners. Likewise, students will learn how to build decision support tools for uncertain problems in a variety of contexts (legal, medical, safety), but with a special emphasis on software development. This course will make a distinctive offering that will enable our students to bring a principled approach to bear to analyse and solve uncertain and risky problems. Course contents: Quantification of risk and assessment: Bayesian Probability & Utility Theory, Bayes Theorem & Bayesian updating; Causal modelling using Bayesian networks with examples; Measurement for risk: Principles of measurement, Software metrics, Introduction to multi-criteria decision aids; Principles of risk management: The risk life-cycle, Fault trees, Hazard analysis; Building causal models in practice: Patterns, identification, model reuse and composition, Eliciting and building probability tables; Real world examples; Decision support environments.

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