Browse Hierarchy ECS647U: Bayesian Decision and Risk Analysis

The role of software is increasingly critical in our everyday lives and the accompanying risks of business or safety critical systems failure can be profound. This module will provide you with a framework for articulating and managing the risks inherent in the systems you will develop as a practitioner. Likewise, you will learn how to build decision-support tools for uncertain problems in a variety of contexts (legal, medical, safety), but with a special emphasis on software development. This module will make a distinctive offering that will enable you to bring a principled approach to bear to analysing and solving uncertain and risky problems. Module contents: Quantification of risk and assessment: Bayesian Probability and Utility Theory, Bayes Theorem and Bayesian updating; Causal modelling using Bayesian networks with examples; Measurement for risk: Principles of measurement, Software metrics, Introduction to multi-criteria decision aids; Principles of risk management: The risk life-cycle, Fault trees, Hazard analysis; Building causal models in practice: Patterns, identification, model reuse and composition, Eliciting and building probability tables; Real world examples; Decision support environments.